There have been material changes to this thesis since it was published in mid-March. Elon is leaving DOGE. Most importantly, Trump is softening his rhetoric on China tariffs.
The market is now pricing in a set of circumstances quite different from a month ago: more limited tariffs, a Trump administration more responsive to the demands of businesses, and no more government spending cuts due to DOGE.
The upside of using a long-short strategy is the ability to change on a dime when circumstances change. In this way, volatility becomes your friend rather than the bane of your existence.
Great analysis. Agreed that the bull market is over but what comes next is tough to predict! Personally, if we unwind decades of globalization, I see the trends of resilience, reshoring & sovereignty and China as long term winners. But it could take time to play out! Looking forward to reading your next articles!
"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future." - Niels Bohr
It's clear that national and economic security are core priorities for both Beijing and Washington, and we're seeing that play out in real time. This won't be good for the stock market in the short to medium term, which has thrived off globalization.
The recent market shifts signal the end of the bull market, but with challenges come opportunities for strategic adaptation. It’s a reminder that staying informed and flexible is key to navigating changing conditions. Thanks for the insightful analysis!
There have been material changes to this thesis since it was published in mid-March. Elon is leaving DOGE. Most importantly, Trump is softening his rhetoric on China tariffs.
The market is now pricing in a set of circumstances quite different from a month ago: more limited tariffs, a Trump administration more responsive to the demands of businesses, and no more government spending cuts due to DOGE.
The upside of using a long-short strategy is the ability to change on a dime when circumstances change. In this way, volatility becomes your friend rather than the bane of your existence.
Great analysis. Agreed that the bull market is over but what comes next is tough to predict! Personally, if we unwind decades of globalization, I see the trends of resilience, reshoring & sovereignty and China as long term winners. But it could take time to play out! Looking forward to reading your next articles!
"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future." - Niels Bohr
It's clear that national and economic security are core priorities for both Beijing and Washington, and we're seeing that play out in real time. This won't be good for the stock market in the short to medium term, which has thrived off globalization.
The recent market shifts signal the end of the bull market, but with challenges come opportunities for strategic adaptation. It’s a reminder that staying informed and flexible is key to navigating changing conditions. Thanks for the insightful analysis!
You're welcome. Great to hear from you!