During my stay in China, I seldom hear anything negative from the Chinese people about Taiwan. Most of them profess an admiration and positivity that I at first found surprising. Even the provocations of the DPP is mostly viewed with annoyance than any passion or hatred. Now, it possible my circles are just not wide enough to be representative of the broader Chinese views and feelings about Taiwan. To this day they refer to Taiwanese as 同胞 — “Tong Bao” — roughly translated as “my kind, or someone with common filial ancestry. Neither side has a strong desire or historical baggage of hatred to destroy each other.
Don't worry about whether or not your experiences are "truly representative" of the public's views. As shown by the repeated failure of US election pollsters to accurately track the views of the American people, this is an impossible task.
What the world needs more of are fluent English speakers who understand China to share their perspectives and experiences and educate the rest of the world.
The Chinese have 5,000 years of caring mostly about one thing - good fortune. It's sheer ignorance to believe they'd behave differently, let alone risk a war with America the unpredictable.
It's almost as if America is psychologically projecting its own mindset and tendencies onto the Chinese and then being very fearful of the mirror reflection. In reality though, Chinese culture is totally different from American culture.
With China’s aggressive moves in the South China Sea and its enormous military buildup, it’s not a stretch to believe that they have an ultimate goal of something other than world peace.
- Economic: critical global trade route, 80% of energy imports go through it
- Military: only ocean off China's coast deep enough to hide its nuclear submarines, which means Beijing must constantly monitor it like a hawk to ensure its sea-based nuclear deterrent capability is never neutralized
By comparison, America is lucky with its geography, with deep oceans on three sides: Pacific, Atlantic, Gulf of America.
There's also no question that the proverbial Sword of Damocles they're hanging over Taipei will only get sharper and heavier over time.
"So, the possibility of invasion, the military drills, the missile tests, and the probing of Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) are less about an imminent D-Day and more about maintaining a proverbial Sword of Damocles over Taipei.
Beijing will undoubtedly continue to sharpen this sword to motivate a greater willingness for Taipei to come to the negotiating table. But Beijing is also acutely aware that if that sword were to actually fall, the consequences for the PRC itself could be catastrophic."
I’m not sure that applies here. The best way to prevent a war is to be strong. A weak U.S. invites adventurism. And while the American defense budget is grossly high, it’s a bargain when compared to the multi trillion-dollar cost of a shooting war.
It's hard to separate which aspects of the US defense budget are truly effective and which aspects are pork barrel spending / jobs program where the defense contractor puts a few jobs in every congressional district so that no one votes against it.
Gary: It’s might be true that China has made ‘aggressive moves’ in the South China Sea, but only if you believe in the ‘logic’ that has China ‘threatening’ US bases that surround it, in a region 6,000 miles from the western seaboard of the USA. That reality does kinda make ‘China bad’ rhetoric sound a bit silly, no?.
China's happy with the equilibrium but the US has been trying to goad it into war for years. Arming Taiwan to the teeth, interfering in elections despite acknowledging its One China status, US empire games endanger the whole world.
If the Chinese are smart they will try to get a big piece of Russia in the East. Currently they are Leasing huge areas of land there. At some point there could be opportunites to directly purchase land like the US did with Alaska more than a Century ago and make it Chinese.
Because of China's insistence on territorial integrity, it's unlikely that Beijing will officially turn a part of Russia into China.
But you're 100% right that China will continue to lease and buy up large parts of Russian Far East (with title held as private property), encourage Chinese people to move there, and gain control over the immense natural resources there. This is easy since the total population of the RFE is just 8m, which is less than half of Shenzhen, a typical Chinese megacity.
China's ability to gain de facto control of the RFE is yet another reason why it won't invade Taiwan.
Western geopolitical analysts often believe that China needs control of Taiwan to break out of the first island chain, but if it really wanted to break out, it would be far easier for Beijing to negotiate access to Russian naval bases on the Kuril Islands and the Kamchatka Peninsula than attempt a messy invasion of Taiwan.
Dino: Do try and free your mind from western narrative management. Methinks you have marinated too long already. I’m 67, lived in The Empire all my life, and have been trying to do just that for 20+ years. I’m pretty much there now: it can be done! ✊
How can China ‘invade’ itself? Could the USA invade Texas? Lazy framing, which I guess is a reflection of wider western fraudulent narratives. I used to believe up till a few years ago, that Taiwan was a country….. it’s not.
I’m sure that powerful & influential elements within the US MIC/Permanent State have desperately tried, and are still trying very hard to turn Taiwan into Ukraine 2.0. Fortunately the Chinese people both sides of the strait are far to clever to let that happen. Obviously there are the usual Empire curated local compradors operating in Taiwan (like the present ‘Government’), but given the stakes, I don’t see the standard western ‘colour revolution’ playbook working here. On a fundamental strategic level, the US Empire has left it way too late….. they are now to weak, and China has just become way too powerful. I see virtually no scenario in which China would find itself needing to ‘invade’ its own province of Taiwan. The Chinese think long term (unlike the cretinous west), and to them, though it may take another 50 years to bring Taiwan peacefully back into the bosom of the motherland, that is merely a blink of the eye.
Speaking of elements of the US military industrial complex desperately trying very hard to turn Taiwan into Ukraine 2.0, they are alive and well on Substack: https://substack.com/@inverteum/note/c-158307345
Well, it's complicated. The important part is that Taiwan does basically have full autonomy to run its own internal governance and will continue to for a long time.
Obvious to anyone with a brain. Meaning nobody in the US.
Yes. Unfortunately, ignorance about international relations is common in the US.
Example: US Senator can't tell the difference between China and Singapore: https://www.youtube.com/shorts/sAkInjju3ww
During my stay in China, I seldom hear anything negative from the Chinese people about Taiwan. Most of them profess an admiration and positivity that I at first found surprising. Even the provocations of the DPP is mostly viewed with annoyance than any passion or hatred. Now, it possible my circles are just not wide enough to be representative of the broader Chinese views and feelings about Taiwan. To this day they refer to Taiwanese as 同胞 — “Tong Bao” — roughly translated as “my kind, or someone with common filial ancestry. Neither side has a strong desire or historical baggage of hatred to destroy each other.
💯 You're precisely right.
Don't worry about whether or not your experiences are "truly representative" of the public's views. As shown by the repeated failure of US election pollsters to accurately track the views of the American people, this is an impossible task.
What the world needs more of are fluent English speakers who understand China to share their perspectives and experiences and educate the rest of the world.
Great article. I agree. I’ve always had the though that if Xi wanted to invade Taiwan, he would’ve already. But he knows the cost.
💯
Because they don’t need to?
💯
Put simply, whether to attack Taiwan isn’t just a military question — it’s even more of a political one.
And once you tally up all the political variables, the expected value goes negative, which is why they’ve held back.
It shows the Chinese government calculates political expected value with remarkable precision.
So… you’re not planning to recruit this elite team of political quants?
The Chinese have 5,000 years of caring mostly about one thing - good fortune. It's sheer ignorance to believe they'd behave differently, let alone risk a war with America the unpredictable.
It's almost as if America is psychologically projecting its own mindset and tendencies onto the Chinese and then being very fearful of the mirror reflection. In reality though, Chinese culture is totally different from American culture.
With China’s aggressive moves in the South China Sea and its enormous military buildup, it’s not a stretch to believe that they have an ultimate goal of something other than world peace.
The South China Sea is literally a separate post.
China primarily needs the SCS on two dimensions:
- Economic: critical global trade route, 80% of energy imports go through it
- Military: only ocean off China's coast deep enough to hide its nuclear submarines, which means Beijing must constantly monitor it like a hawk to ensure its sea-based nuclear deterrent capability is never neutralized
By comparison, America is lucky with its geography, with deep oceans on three sides: Pacific, Atlantic, Gulf of America.
There's also no question that the proverbial Sword of Damocles they're hanging over Taipei will only get sharper and heavier over time.
"So, the possibility of invasion, the military drills, the missile tests, and the probing of Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) are less about an imminent D-Day and more about maintaining a proverbial Sword of Damocles over Taipei.
Beijing will undoubtedly continue to sharpen this sword to motivate a greater willingness for Taipei to come to the negotiating table. But Beijing is also acutely aware that if that sword were to actually fall, the consequences for the PRC itself could be catastrophic."
I shared the same viewpoint from a militaristic perspective: https://kainesianmacro.substack.com/p/how-china-will-struggle-to-invade
Interesting read. You're right that "for all its saber-rattling, perhaps China has no true plans to attack at all."
An excellent article... sound and basic common sense that nevertheless will not be accepted by western media and government.
"You can’t convince a man when his salary depends on him not understanding it." - Upton Sinclair
The US military industrial complex has a strong incentive to promote absurd claims of a potential invasion.
Agree... I've noted that in all the hoopla about US budget cuts, the military/war budget hasn't been mentioned at all.
I’m not sure that applies here. The best way to prevent a war is to be strong. A weak U.S. invites adventurism. And while the American defense budget is grossly high, it’s a bargain when compared to the multi trillion-dollar cost of a shooting war.
It's hard to separate which aspects of the US defense budget are truly effective and which aspects are pork barrel spending / jobs program where the defense contractor puts a few jobs in every congressional district so that no one votes against it.
As far as deterrence, "a majority (66%) of Taiwanese are unwilling to pay higher taxes to strengthen the island's military."
It's not fair to ask American taxpayers to foot the bill when Taiwan's taxpayers are not willing to pay more for their own defense.
China’s ‘demographic catastrophe’? A solution?…… stop reading Peter Zeihan. 😂
This comment was left in response to Gary: https://blog.inverteum.com/p/china-wont-invade-taiwan/comment/134783271
Gary: It’s might be true that China has made ‘aggressive moves’ in the South China Sea, but only if you believe in the ‘logic’ that has China ‘threatening’ US bases that surround it, in a region 6,000 miles from the western seaboard of the USA. That reality does kinda make ‘China bad’ rhetoric sound a bit silly, no?.
China's happy with the equilibrium but the US has been trying to goad it into war for years. Arming Taiwan to the teeth, interfering in elections despite acknowledging its One China status, US empire games endanger the whole world.
Luckily, China is well aware that any war would be self-destructive and will refuse to play into America's hands.
Well said. Thanks.
If the Chinese are smart they will try to get a big piece of Russia in the East. Currently they are Leasing huge areas of land there. At some point there could be opportunites to directly purchase land like the US did with Alaska more than a Century ago and make it Chinese.
Because of China's insistence on territorial integrity, it's unlikely that Beijing will officially turn a part of Russia into China.
But you're 100% right that China will continue to lease and buy up large parts of Russian Far East (with title held as private property), encourage Chinese people to move there, and gain control over the immense natural resources there. This is easy since the total population of the RFE is just 8m, which is less than half of Shenzhen, a typical Chinese megacity.
China's ability to gain de facto control of the RFE is yet another reason why it won't invade Taiwan.
Western geopolitical analysts often believe that China needs control of Taiwan to break out of the first island chain, but if it really wanted to break out, it would be far easier for Beijing to negotiate access to Russian naval bases on the Kuril Islands and the Kamchatka Peninsula than attempt a messy invasion of Taiwan.
Hey man. Really great work. Would you be interested in guest posting on my newsletter. I think more people need to see stuff like this
Agreed. Cross posting has been enabled, so you may go ahead and do so: https://support.substack.com/hc/en-us/articles/10522003894932-How-can-I-share-another-publication-s-post-with-my-subscribers
Dino: Do try and free your mind from western narrative management. Methinks you have marinated too long already. I’m 67, lived in The Empire all my life, and have been trying to do just that for 20+ years. I’m pretty much there now: it can be done! ✊
How can China ‘invade’ itself? Could the USA invade Texas? Lazy framing, which I guess is a reflection of wider western fraudulent narratives. I used to believe up till a few years ago, that Taiwan was a country….. it’s not.
I’m sure that powerful & influential elements within the US MIC/Permanent State have desperately tried, and are still trying very hard to turn Taiwan into Ukraine 2.0. Fortunately the Chinese people both sides of the strait are far to clever to let that happen. Obviously there are the usual Empire curated local compradors operating in Taiwan (like the present ‘Government’), but given the stakes, I don’t see the standard western ‘colour revolution’ playbook working here. On a fundamental strategic level, the US Empire has left it way too late….. they are now to weak, and China has just become way too powerful. I see virtually no scenario in which China would find itself needing to ‘invade’ its own province of Taiwan. The Chinese think long term (unlike the cretinous west), and to them, though it may take another 50 years to bring Taiwan peacefully back into the bosom of the motherland, that is merely a blink of the eye.
Speaking of elements of the US military industrial complex desperately trying very hard to turn Taiwan into Ukraine 2.0, they are alive and well on Substack: https://substack.com/@inverteum/note/c-158307345
💯 Phenomenally written
Well, it's complicated. The important part is that Taiwan does basically have full autonomy to run its own internal governance and will continue to for a long time.